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TOWARDS A DURABLE KNOWLEDGE SOCIETY
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postat de andicaragea in 2008-03-11 13:50
TOWARDS A DURABLE KNOWLEDGE SOCIETY
– a preliminary research on a quality indicator of the social knowledge for durable development -

Dan Manoleli*, Alexandru Caragea**/*** and Aron Jinaru**/***
Paper submitted to the INTERNATIONAL CONFERENCE on
"Management and Sustainable Marine Development"
5 – 18 May 2008, Constanta, ROMANIA


Abstract
The paradigm chosen for the research underlying this paper is specific to the new trend of sustainability science. The question pursued by this research is related to the complex dynamics created by the co-evolving coupling between human and environment systems instituted by the consequences of knowledge. The issue treated is that of representing the stage of civilizational development by means of the Ecological Footprint (EF) and Human Development Index (HDI) indicators as well as the aberrant co-evolving way in which these approximations have been used in strategic projections. The key aspect dealt with has been the significance given to the positive and nonlinear correlation between EF and HDI (see. Fig.1).
The paper shows that, seeing things historically, the evolution perspective of the EF could be considered a consequence of the level attainted by human development. This could be formally expressed as EF(t+∆t)=f[HDI(t)]. We emphasized that, to be strategically rational and biologically consistent, we need to see human development as being actually the element conditioned by the evolving perspectives of the EF – and hence formally HDI(t+∆t)=f[AE(t)].
By considering the explicit role of knowledge as a causal factor of the EF/HDI correlation, the paper defines a more adequate relation, expressed formally as
.
HDI(t.+.+t) = f{EF(t), Q[HDI(t.-.-t)]},
.
where Q[HDI(t)] is a quality indicator of the knowledge for durable development, which must be built.
The paper rigorously defines this kind of social knowledge, investigates the specific modalities of stimulating its cultivation by facilitating competent communication (between the poles represented by the actors of political science, public participation and political decision) and proposes, as a descriptor of the strategic model for the future, the “Durable Knowledge Society” concept.
...
Figure 1

Vezi si: http://om.ablog.ro/categorie/2863/


* University of Bucharest
** CSC - Center for Complexity Studies
*** PISC – Perspectives-Innovation-Science-Knowledge, (PISK Association)



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Teoria Catastrofelor - cel mai scurt 'curs de popularizare' si aplicatie pe cazul practic al problemei deciderii viitorului
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postat de andicaragea in 2008-02-25 19:22

© Alexandru Caragea

"Cursul"

Cand parametrii externi ai unui sistem complex bazat pe potentiale merg de voia lor, emerg, se pot intampla numarate sau nenumarate pierderi de stabilitate structurala (destructurari) dupa cum urmeaza:
- daca numarul de parametri este mai mic de 6, sistemul este pasibil sa se destructureze intr-unul din 11 clase de scenarii posibile,
- daca numarul de parametri este mai mare de 5, clasele de scenarii devin nenumarate.

In esenta, acesta este rezultatul central al Teoriei Morfogenezei si Stabilitatii Structurale (teoria catastrofelor) a lui Rene Thom, formulat într-un limbaj comun.

APLICATIA - Emergentele nocive civilizatiei ale umane - câte scenarii de destructurare sunt posibile?

Emergentele sunt acea clasa de fenomene care la scara mare, a societatii, sunt provocate de consecintele neintentionate iscate in urma consumarii efectelor actiunilor individuale ale entitatilor constituente ale acesteia - "fenomene care merg de la sine", autoorganizate si nu organizate (intentionate) de cineva anume.

Exista cel putin 7 clase parametrice cu caracter de emergente globale si cu impact asupra potentialului de viabilitate al civilizatiei umane:

  1. Cresterea demografica,
  2. Consumul de carburanti organici,
  3. Taierile de paduri,
  4. Declinul biodiversitatii
  5. Extinderea saraciei
  6. Migratia
  7. Cresterea interconectivitatii (decuplata de conditia proximitatii geografice - posibilitatilor de comunicare intre persoane prin sistemele de telecomunicatii)

Teoria lui Thom ne spune ca exista nenumarate scenarii plauzibile!

Care ar fi solutia? ... voi vorbi despre asta intr-o postare viitoare in care ma voi referi pe scurt la sinergetica!

© Alexandru Caragea


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